CPI rose to 3.3% in the year to March 2026, up from 3.0% in February. Motor fuels were the single biggest upward contributor, rising 4.9% in a month, the sharpest jump in over three years. The Bank of England now expects CPI to sit between 3% and 3.5% through Q2 and Q3, with some forecasters calling 4% by autumn.
If you own affordability at a consumer lender, none of this is news. You have been having this conversation internally for weeks. The war in the Middle East pushed oil up, your governance team flagged rural transport exposure, someone then sent round a few worst case scenarios and the team needs to establish a view and even a strategy change.
Now the print has landed. The question is whether your affordability model moved with it.
Most UK affordability stacks run on ONS Living Costs and Food Survey data, published 12 to 18 months after collection, applied as broad demographic averages. That was defensible when inflation was boring. It is not defensible when petrol is up 8.6 pence per litre between February and March, diesel is up 17.6 pence, and services inflation is sticky at 4.5%.
A model that refreshes annually in a world that reprices quarterly is not conservative. It is inaccurate in both directions. It quietly over-estimates some households into approvals they cannot sustain, and under-estimates others out of lending they could comfortably service. Under Consumer Duty, the regulator has no more patience for the second than the first.
Sheldon Mills, the FCA's Executive Director of Consumers and Competition, wrote to CEOs that the industry plays a significant role in helping consumers manage their finances, and should expect close attention to how it does that. The attention is now quantifiable.
The FOS received 71,685 irresponsible or unaffordable lending complaints in 2024/25, more than double the 33,221 the previous year. A third are being upheld. That is the exposure sitting on your desk.
Send us a sample of your book. We will run it retrospectively against your current approach and return our Cost-of-Living estimates, and product-specific outputs. The retro is free. Across non-bank lenders, we consistently see a 10 to 30% improvement on affordability-driven declines.
Book a retro: hello@infact.io